Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in April?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in April?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 3/5¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $14,152.832·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining
0xbb8ed295d541ad1dd66778d7ed17269e59ebdb95d9a1f35c6e186a4ecc70fdff
7-day price228 snapshots · 1 regime
41¢4¢ current
Apr 112¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%
IY (No) 186.6%
Adj IY 50000%
CRI 24
Overround 0.2%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)>100,000%
IY (No)186.6%
Adj IY50000%
CRI24
Overround0.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:23:44 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xbb8ed295d541ad1dd66778d7ed17269e59ebdb95d9a1f35c6e186a4ecc70fdff yes 100

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