Will the Republican Party win the TX-20 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Republican contract trading at just 8¢, implying only an 8% win probability in a traditionally Democratic district, yet the implied yield for a Yes resolution reaches an extraordinary 2091.8% compared to just 15.8% for No. The zero 24-hour volume despite $30k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market may be illiquid or stale, with the high yield potentially reflecting mispricing rather than genuine opportunity given TX-20's strong Democratic lean. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this contract carries meaningful tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate catalyst is driving the current pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade