Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

OpenAI's position as the top AI model provider is priced at just 4¢, implying the market assigns only a 4% probability to them maintaining the #1 spot by end of April 2026—a remarkably bearish view that reflects strong confidence in competitors like Anthropic or DeepSeek. The extreme implied yield of 63,881% on the "Yes" side signals severe illiquidity and pricing inefficiency, with only $890k in 24-hour volume against $21.8M open interest, creating a 1¢ spread that understates the true uncertainty. With just 14 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 1,202%, this market is highly sensitive to any new model releases or leaderboard shifts, though the neutral regime and modest info arrival rate (0.4/h) suggest relatively stable expectations heading into the final weeks.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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