GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026?

This market has collapsed dramatically from 60¢ to 12¢ over seven days, now pricing GPT-5.5 release by April 22 at just 12% probability with only 6 days to resolution. The extreme implied yield of 46,852% on the Yes side reflects the cliff risk inherent in binary markets approaching expiry, while the 2.5 info arrivals per hour and 2,579% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty and potential for last-minute moves. Despite reasonable liquidity at $5.5M open interest, the sharp price decline and high cliff risk index of 7 indicate market participants have largely priced out a near-term release, making this a high-risk tail bet with minimal margin for error.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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