Will Export-control chip security become law this year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $99.3k open interest, and a massive 64¢ bid-ask spread indicating significant pricing uncertainty. The 7-day price surge from 33¢ to 60¢ combined with 958% realized volatility and an 8.96 vol ratio suggests recent news or sentiment shift, though the neutral regime score and 2.3 info arrivals per hour don't indicate sustained momentum. The asymmetric implied yields (115% for Yes vs. 172% for No) reflect the wide spread rather than fundamental conviction, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid betting market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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