Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Mark Lamb commands an 84% probability to win the AZ-05 Republican nomination, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with the "No" side offering a stunning 1,759% implied yield versus just 63.8% for "Yes"—a classic sign that contrarian bettors see significant upside in a Lamb loss despite the heavy favorite pricing.
Analysis
Mark Lamb commands an 84% probability to win the AZ-05 Republican nomination, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with the "No" side offering a stunning 1,759% implied yield versus just 63.8% for "Yes"—a classic sign that contrarian bettors see significant upside in a Lamb loss despite the heavy favorite pricing. The 6-cent price decline over seven days combined with 117% realized volatility and a 1.50 vol ratio suggests meaningful uncertainty beneath the surface, though thin 24-hour volume of $544 raises questions about whether this 84¢ level reflects genuine conviction or illiquidity-driven mispricing with 109 days until the August 4, 2026 primary.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0xbd6602e1152e6557a87e6d0bad683a21a2d5fa9132872543170ed6c5d1c53ed0 yes 100