Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a staggering 8,410% implied yield on the "Yes" side despite only 14 days to expiry, suggesting either severe liquidity constraints or a significant disconnect between the 24¢ price and fundamental risk assessment. The massive 352% realized volatility and 3/10 cliff risk index indicate substantial uncertainty, yet the modest $54.5K daily volume and $13.4M open interest appear insufficient to support such an asymmetric risk profile. The stable 7-day price trajectory (25¢ to 24¢) contrasts sharply with the extreme yield metrics, warranting caution about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or a liquidity trap near expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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