Will Ben Midgely win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Ben Midgely win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $11.8K, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread suggesting thin order books.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $11.8K, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread suggesting thin order books. The price has collapsed 55% over seven days (from 18¢ to 8¢), and the astronomical 7,924% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market is pricing in either a dramatic recovery or potential resolution uncertainty, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias. With only 53 days to the June 9 primary close and a realized volatility of 1,550%, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal liquidity depth rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Also on kalshi at 9¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbf63a5bf27c5afcd8220698223ddf84a0964df2303cceb4324cf784ef3014776 yes 100