Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?

This market shows extreme volatility (1433% realized vol) and illiquidity despite $2.1M open interest, with zero 24-hour volume suggesting the market may be inactive or thinly traded. The 49¢ price implies near coin-flip odds for a Trump Japan visit, but the asymmetric yields (147% vs 136%) and high vol ratio (9.09) indicate significant uncertainty and potential mispricing between Yes/No sides. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in genuine ambiguity about Trump's 2026 travel plans, though the lack of recent price discovery ($0 volume) raises questions about whether this quote accurately reflects current market sentiment.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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