Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Civil Contract is priced at an extremely high 92¢ with only 51 days to expiry, implying near-certainty of winning the most seats, yet the massive 8235% implied yield on the "No" side and 120% realized volatility suggest significant tail-risk pricing or potential mispricing given the relatively thin $209k daily volume. The 3¢ price rise over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicates market participants are pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite the dominant favorite status, possibly reflecting concerns about Armenian political dynamics or election integrity that could shift outcomes dramatically in the final weeks.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).

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