Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 55¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about whether OpenAI's GPT models will clear a 50% threshold on Humanity's Last Exam by mid-2026, with the asymmetric implied yields (400% Yes vs.
Analysis
The 55¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about whether OpenAI's GPT models will clear a 50% threshold on Humanity's Last Exam by mid-2026, with the asymmetric implied yields (400% Yes vs. 597.5% No) suggesting the market slightly favors underperformance despite the even-money pricing. The extremely high realized volatility of 243% and elevated info arrival rate of 0.8/h indicate this market is actively repricing on new capability benchmarks and exam details, though the modest 7-day price stability (54¢ to 55¢) and neutral regime suggest no recent directional conviction. With $3.5M open interest but only $324K daily volume and a 7¢ spread, liquidity is moderate relative to position size, creating potential execution friction for larger trades over the 75-day window.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
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Trade
sf trade 0xc3bb9eb2c758cd71f7a59199c27bf3f20c9e1d929687c72b20c8d06076c45c78 yes 100