Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 22¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, with the No side offering a modest 51.5% annualized yield versus the extreme 647.3% yield on the Yes side—a stark asymmetry typical of deep red seats. The market has shown modest bullish momentum for Democrats, rising 3¢ over seven days, though the thin 2¢ spread and $1.3M daily volume suggest limited liquidity for a race 200 days out, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 4 warrants caution, as FL-16's political fundamentals could shift materially closer to the election, making the current 22% Democratic probability vulnerable to repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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