Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed's chances have risen 14% over the past week to 40¢, suggesting growing market confidence in his candidacy, though the extremely high realized volatility of 609% and a vol ratio of 2.56 indicate substantial uncertainty and potential for sharp reversals.
Analysis
Abdul El-Sayed's chances have risen 14% over the past week to 40¢, suggesting growing market confidence in his candidacy, though the extremely high realized volatility of 609% and a vol ratio of 2.56 indicate substantial uncertainty and potential for sharp reversals. The Yes side offers an exceptional 502% annualized yield with tight 2¢ spreads and moderate $9.7M open interest, but the low 24-hour volume of just $1.8M raises liquidity concerns for larger positions. With 109 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.9 events per hour, this market remains highly reactive to campaign developments and polling shifts.
Also on kalshi at 44¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xca0329cd4392d91e39df0702949229573d2415ae4a37b0103d0c6e9d03b8dd44 yes 100