Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 937.8% implied yield on "Yes" but zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity is pricing in tail risk rather than genuine market consensus. The price has collapsed 73% over seven days (from 51¢ to 19¢), and the 647% realized volatility combined with a 2.00 vol ratio indicates sharp recent repricing likely driven by geopolitical developments, though the 0.7/h information arrival rate suggests sentiment remains in flux. With 166 days to expiration and only $7,145 open interest, this appears to be a speculative position market rather than an efficiently priced contract, warranting caution on the 20¢ quote as representative of true probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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