Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing MN-06 as a heavily favored seat at 84¢, but the extreme 955% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $126 daily volume against $19.8k open interest suggests thin trading that may not reflect true market consensus. The 2-cent price decline over seven days combined with a neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (5/10) indicates stable positioning, though the 201-day timeline to November 2026 provides ample time for political shifts in what is historically a competitive Minnesota district. The tight 3¢ spread is notable given the low volume, suggesting some market maker presence despite limited activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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