Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,860.66 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the sharp 88% rally over seven days. The wildly asymmetric implied yields (31.5% for Yes versus 7,735.7% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 suggest significant mispricing or thin-market distortion rather than genuine conviction that gold will touch $4,700 by June 2026. With 74 days to expiry and gold's current spot price well above this strike, the market appears to be pricing in an extreme downside move that seems inconsistent with the neutral regime score and minimal trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

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Regime

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