Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026.

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18¢
Bid/Ask 16/19¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $62.54·OI $19,886.008·Closes May 26, 2026·34d remaining
0xce2dc1bcbca8c4d96a02f4c3d084c675190700d27c913cb7dad31e3759ce2f72
7-day price213 snapshots · 3 regime
18¢18¢ current
Apr 912¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4868.9%
IY (No) 234.6%
Adj IY 2434%
CRI 5
Overround 0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)4868.9%
IY (No)234.6%
Adj IY2434%
CRI5
Overround0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:26:29 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xce2dc1bcbca8c4d96a02f4c3d084c675190700d27c913cb7dad31e3759ce2f72 yes 100

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