Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an overwhelming 93% probability for a Democratic win in IL-04, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, though the extreme 2425% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity on the contrarian position with only $17,220 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 13-point cliff risk index and 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election suggest this market lacks active trading depth despite the seemingly decisive pricing, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if political conditions shift or if liquidity providers enter the No side.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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