Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices an extremely unlikely move to $12,000 gold at just 6% implied probability, yet offers an extraordinary 2,210.7% annualized yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-premium that suggests either deep skepticism or potential mispricing given gold's current ~$2,100 level would require a 471% rally.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely unlikely move to $12,000 gold at just 6% implied probability, yet offers an extraordinary 2,210.7% annualized yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-premium that suggests either deep skepticism or potential mispricing given gold's current ~$2,100 level would require a 471% rally. The 259-day timeframe and thin $11.94k daily volume create liquidity concerns despite $37M open interest, while the 16 Cliff Risk Index flags potential volatility clustering near expiration that could amplify slippage on any attempted exit.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd004d5dfba46e636f05909046ec09eba1fdf8eb21d9466f64228053e98e8f87f yes 100