Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Uruguay's 16-cent price reflects a 16% implied probability of winning Group H, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,698% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $17.4k open interest against only $1.3k daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could be distorting the odds.
Analysis
Uruguay's 16-cent price reflects a 16% implied probability of winning Group H, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,698% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $17.4k open interest against only $1.3k daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could be distorting the odds. The 1,255% realized volatility and 3.13 vol ratio signal extreme price swings, likely driven by low trade frequency (1.6 info arrivals per hour) rather than fundamental shifts, making this market unreliable for serious positioning with 71 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xd136f80c161a40baa5890a7792a2a5bf264de0d5ef2711a23e4564b429969ff8 yes 100