Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?

This TX-15 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11,253.66 open interest, suggesting trapped liquidity or stale pricing that may not reflect current consensus. The 384% realized volatility and 231% risk-adjusted yield on the "No" side indicate substantial uncertainty, though the 56¢ Democratic price aligns reasonably with Texas's partisan lean in a district that typically favors Republicans. With 201 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 0.9 events per hour, this market remains in early-stage discovery and should be approached cautiously given the wide 5¢ spread and potential for significant repricing as the 2026 cycle intensifies.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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