Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $24,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?

This market shows a perfectly balanced 50-50 outcome at 50¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($200 in 24h volume) and a wide 34¢ spread, suggesting significant pricing uncertainty despite the neutral regime and stable 7-day price action. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1682% and vol ratio of 15.40 indicate this contract has experienced severe price swings historically, though the 141.5% annualized yield on both sides reflects the long 258-day timeframe to expiry rather than near-term cliff risk. With NDX currently around $21,500-22,000 range, the $24,000 target requires roughly 9-12% appreciation over two years, making the even odds reasonable but the illiquid market structure leaves room for significant repricing as expiry approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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