Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

The Yes side offers an unusually attractive 203% annualized yield at 41¢, suggesting the market may be underpricing downside risk to Trump's approval—particularly given the 296% realized volatility and 2.18 vol ratio indicating elevated uncertainty. With only $123.46 in 24-hour volume against $9.3M open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns and making the 5¢ spread meaningful at 12% of the midpoint. The neutral regime and stable 7-day price action (42¢ to 41¢) suggest the market hasn't yet priced in major catalysts, though with 258 days to expiry, there's substantial time for approval-moving events to materialize.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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