Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

The Yes position trades at an extreme 16,300% implied yield with only 14¢ pricing, suggesting either severe undervaluation or deep skepticism about achieving 60+ daily transits by April 30, 2026. The 667% realized volatility and modest 24-hour volume of $2.2K indicate thin liquidity and high uncertainty, with the market having drifted up just 2¢ over seven days despite the enormous yield differential. With 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a speculative position on a geopolitical/shipping threshold where the market is heavily discounting the probability of normal Hormuz traffic levels.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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