Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.5M open interest, suggesting the OI figure may be stale or the contract is largely inactive. The 6¢ price implies only a 6% probability for Parkin to finish in the top four of Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial primary, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an astronomical 4,650%—a massive asymmetry that typically signals either very thin order books or a mispriced long tail. With 123 days to expiration and a 16 Cliff Risk Index, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish reliable price discovery, making this contract more speculative than predictive.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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