Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

The market prices a 66% probability of SpaceX's IPO occurring specifically in June 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (76% for Yes vs. 262% for No) suggest significant tail risk skew, with traders pricing in substantial uncertainty about timing. The 463% realized volatility and 4.22 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced wild price swings, likely driven by sporadic news flow (0.9 info arrivals per hour), making the current 66¢ price potentially unstable despite the tight 1¢ spread and reasonable $2.9M daily volume. With 259 days until resolution and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in genuine uncertainty about whether an IPO will occur at all by year-end 2026 rather than confidence in a June-specific outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

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Regime

Trade