In which month will SpaceX IPO
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
200 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
In which month will SpaceX IPO
In which month will SpaceX IPO?: June
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Analysis
Markets currently estimate a 66% probability that SpaceX will complete its initial public offering in June 2026, based on aggregated contract pricing across multiple prediction platforms. This timeline reflects market participants' assessment of regulatory approval timelines, company readiness, and market conditions. The probability could shift based on whether Elon Musk confirms or delays IPO plans, changes in macroeconomic conditions affecting capital markets, or regulatory developments at the SEC. The key catalyst for resolution will be any official announcement from SpaceX leadership regarding the IPO date, which would immediately clarify timing beyond current speculation. Currently, markets show high confidence (95%) that SpaceX will IPO before 2027, but substantial uncertainty about whether this occurs before July 1st (79%) versus specifically in June (66%).
- ›SpaceX has not made an official public announcement confirming an IPO date or timeline as of May 2026
- ›Market pricing shows sharp probability drops between June (66%), July (79%), August (84%), suggesting June is viewed as the most likely near-term window
- ›Trading volume on the June contract ($36.5M in 24h) vastly exceeds other timeframe contracts, indicating this is the focal point of market attention and debate
- ›Overall 95% probability SpaceX IPOs before 2027 indicates near-certainty the event occurs in 2026, with disagreement centered on specific month
- ›Regulatory approval from SEC and macro capital markets conditions would be primary factors causing upward or downward movement from current 66% level
Recently closed in ai tech
- How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?: 90-100Blast 97% · 2d
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.6Tlast 89% · 2d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)last 97% · 2d
- Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: NASDAQlast 96% · 2d
- When will SpaceX IPOlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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