What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1457.8% and 14.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 8/9¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $55·OI $12,119.507·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xd81282f5791e3354572aa666ee1a2bdb8700e235a6d94b06a49c18c606eef1ce

7-day price58 snapshots · 32 regime

50¢9¢ current

Apr 179¢Apr 19

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1457.8%

IY (No) 14.3%

Adj IY 729%

CRI 10

Overround 7.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1457.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	729%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	7.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:26:52 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xd81282f5791e3354572aa666ee1a2bdb8700e235a6d94b06a49c18c606eef1ce yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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