Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 16, 2026. Chuck Smith's Republican Senate nomination odds have collapsed 25% over the past week, now trading at just 6¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.8K open interest, suggesting this contract has become essentially illiquid.
Analysis
Chuck Smith's Republican Senate nomination odds have collapsed 25% over the past week, now trading at just 6¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.8K open interest, suggesting this contract has become essentially illiquid. The extreme 9538% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the distressed pricing typical of abandoned positions, while the 9¢ bid-ask spread further indicates minimal market depth with 60 days until the June 2026 primary. The moderate cliff risk index of 16 and neutral regime score suggest no imminent catalyst, but traders should be cautious given the combination of depressed price, wide spreads, and complete absence of recent trading activity.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd815aab33cc1c82fa9c4cb8eb751776d3353e60a8c87708b34e0ca44ba671a5b yes 100