Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Negative GDP growth in 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing January 29, 2027. The market is pricing a 9% probability of negative US GDP growth in 2026, but the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1286% implied yield for "Yes" positions versus just 12.6% for "No," suggesting significant tail-risk premium rather than genuine recession conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 9% probability of negative US GDP growth in 2026, but the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1286% implied yield for "Yes" positions versus just 12.6% for "No," suggesting significant tail-risk premium rather than genuine recession conviction. Volume is thin at $84.7k daily against $12M open interest, and the price has declined 25% over seven days (from 12¢ to 9¢), indicating either improving economic sentiment or position unwinding. With 287 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 10, this market appears to be pricing in a low but non-negligible tail scenario with considerable uncertainty embedded in the odds.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1 yes 100