Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Leader sits at 48% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.9%–2.2%
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
1.5%–1.8%
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$720
thin orderbook
Closes
May 29, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026
Analysis
This market estimates a 21% probability that Brazil's GDP grew between 1.9% and 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The low probability reflects expectations for stronger growth, driven by Brazil's recent economic momentum and accommodative monetary policy. The significant 13-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about growth trajectory, with Kalshi traders pricing in higher odds of this mid-range outcome. The resolution will depend on official GDP data released by Brazil's statistical agency (typically in early June), which measures actual quarterly growth. Key variables include commodity price movements affecting export demand, agricultural production, domestic consumption trends, and currency stability relative to the US dollar.
- ›Brazil's official Q1 2026 GDP release date and preliminary estimates from the statistical agency will directly determine the outcome
- ›Recent quarterly growth rates and trend momentum in late 2025 establish the baseline for expectations about Q1 acceleration or deceleration
- ›Commodity prices and exchange rates during Q1 2026 materially affect export competitiveness and import costs for Brazilian producers
- ›The 13-percentage-point probability gap between exchanges indicates material disagreement about whether growth falls into this specific band versus adjacent ranges (lower or higher)
- ›Central bank policy decisions and credit conditions through Q1 2026 influence consumer and business spending patterns
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above -0.08%last 3% · 1d
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 5d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 8d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In recession
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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