Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 20,616% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge for contrarian bettors willing to take the position. The $657.87 daily volume against $18.8M open interest indicates thin trading conditions that could amplify volatility, and the 32 Cliff Risk Index signals potential sharp moves as the June 16, 2026 primary approaches in 57 days. The 50% price increase over seven days (2¢ to 3¢) combined with zero spread suggests recent accumulation by informed traders, though the neutral regime score (0.409) indicates no clear directional momentum in the broader market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Regime

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