Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat?

The 92¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Democratic retention of TX-30, though the extreme 2091.8% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and pricing distortion rather than genuine market conviction—with zero 24-hour volume and only $26.7K open interest, this contract lacks sufficient depth to trust the probability estimate. The 1¢ spread and 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election suggest this is a thinly-traded position market where even modest order flow could cause significant price swings, making it unsuitable for serious directional bets until volume and liquidity materialize.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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