Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

The Linke contract shows extreme asymmetry with a 1716% implied yield on the yes side versus 31.9% on the no side, suggesting the market has priced in a very low probability despite the party's historical relevance in Berlin politics. Volume is thin at just $60 in 24 hours against $14.8M open interest, indicating illiquidity that could amplify price swings, and the recent 33% price increase (9¢ to 12¢ over 7 days) warrants scrutiny for whether this reflects genuine polling shifts or thin-market volatility. With 156 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this contract carries meaningful tail risk and should be monitored for late-campaign developments that could dramatically reprrice the odds.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Indicators

Regime

Trade