Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026.

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12¢
Bid/Ask 11/13¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $287.37·OI $36,897.843·Closes May 19, 2026·27d remaining
0xda66c20ca25d623bd0fa83ae36af6cb3cf523977643f4a3fa23bb55c71f853a9
7-day price138 snapshots · 21 regime
18¢12¢ current
Apr 89¢Apr 21
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 8¢+4¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.92IY 2144.0%Close-time delta 4047h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9858.4%
IY (No) 183.3%
Adj IY 4929%
CRI 7
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)9858.4%
IY (No)183.3%
Adj IY4929%
CRI7
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:23:56 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xda66c20ca25d623bd0fa83ae36af6cb3cf523977643f4a3fa23bb55c71f853a9 yes 100

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