Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 60% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Burt Jones
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Rick Jackson
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$11K
liquid
Closes
May 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a Republican will win Georgia's gubernatorial primary election. Currently trading at 43%, it suggests meaningful uncertainty about the Republican field, with Brad Raffensperger's contract at 5 cents indicating low confidence in any single frontrunner. The probability level depends on two main considerations: first, the strength and diversity of the Republican candidate pool and whether a consensus candidate emerges; second, the influence of national Republican leadership and Trump-aligned figures on Georgia voters' primary preferences. The resolution of this uncertainty will likely come during the campaign period leading to Georgia's primary election date, when polling data, fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns become clearer signals of candidate viability.
- ›Brad Raffensperger is the only Georgia Governor Republican Primary contract visible at 5 cents, suggesting no clear frontrunner in the current field
- ›The 43% overall probability is moderately below 50%, indicating market skepticism about Republican primary competitiveness or candidate strength
- ›Polymarket has 19 contracts on this race, suggesting active trading but potentially fragmented opinion across multiple candidates
- ›Historical Georgia Republican primary turnout and voter preferences in previous gubernatorial cycles will influence how each candidate performs
- ›National political dynamics and any federal indictments or major news events could significantly shift candidate viability between now and the primary vote
What moved the line
- Jun 17Rick Jackson↑63pp31→94¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Burt Jones↓61pp68→7¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Burt Jones↑15pp56→71¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Rick Jackson↓14pp44→30¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13Burt Jones↓3pp57→54¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (60% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.