Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?

The Rams' 10¢ price reflects a 10% Super Bowl LXI win probability with an extremely asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers a stratospheric 942% implied yield versus just 11.6% for No, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the market's neutral regime assessment. With $264M in open interest but only $481K daily volume, liquidity is notably thin for such a large position, creating potential slippage concerns and a high 9 cliff risk index that warrants caution on execution. The modest 1¢ spread and stable price movement from 9¢ to 10¢ over seven days indicate the market has settled, though the risk-adjusted yield of 471% still signals meaningful mispricing if the Rams' true championship odds exceed their current implied probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade