Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats as overwhelming favorites at 94¢, reflecting Illinois's deep blue lean, but the extreme 2860% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity on the Republican outcome with only $678k in 24-hour volume against $15.8M open interest. The 1¢ spread and modest 1-point price movement over seven days suggest the market has settled into a stable equilibrium, though the elevated 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp repricing if political conditions shift significantly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade