Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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51¢
Bid/Ask 37/64¢·Spread 27¢·Vol $0·OI $730.622·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0xddeb88745cb5ad8c67dd08d9fdf322c316ae5f36fdd21b89ff3ec090b6fa1fec
7-day price1650 snapshots · 3 regime
61¢50¢ current
Apr 840¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 144.2%
IY (No) 144.2%
Adj IY 72%
CRI 1
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)144.2%
IY (No)144.2%
Adj IY72%
CRI1

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
27¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:25:17 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xddeb88745cb5ad8c67dd08d9fdf322c316ae5f36fdd21b89ff3ec090b6fa1fec yes 100

Related concepts

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