Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Polymarket, closing June 17, 2026. The market is pricing in a 93% probability of no Fed rate change at the June 2026 meeting, with the price rising 4 cents over the past week, suggesting growing conviction in a pause.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 93% probability of no Fed rate change at the June 2026 meeting, with the price rising 4 cents over the past week, suggesting growing conviction in a pause. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (45.1% for Yes vs. 7953.2% for No) indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity on the rate-cut side, though the $201k open interest and tight 1¢ spread suggest reasonable depth for a binary outcome this far out. With 61 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this market carries moderate event risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate macro catalyst is driving the high probability.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41 yes 100