Will there be at least 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

The 9¢ price implies only a 9% probability of reaching 130m votes in 2026, which appears substantially underpriced given that 2022 House elections drew 119.6m votes and 2018 drew 113.6m—making 130m a modest 8-9% increase from recent turnout. The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2m open interest, a 4¢ spread, and an implausible 1637% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where the probability floor may be artificially depressed. With 201 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 1926%, this market carries substantial uncertainty but the historical trajectory and modest threshold suggest the true probability is likely 25-40%, not 9%.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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