Will the Republican Party win the VA-09 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided Republican advantage at 94¢, implying a 94% win probability for the GOP in VA-09, though the asymmetric implied yields (11.6% for Yes versus 2,849.7% for No) suggest severe illiquidity on the No side with only $1,150 in 24-hour volume against $20.9M open interest. The 1¢ spread and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled into a stable consensus, but the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 and extreme risk-adjusted yield of 1,425% warn that this heavily skewed pricing could face significant repricing if Democratic fundamentals shift before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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