Will the Democratic Party win the TX-37 House seat?

This market reflects extremely high confidence in Democratic retention of TX-37, with the Yes side priced at 92¢ implying a 92% win probability, yet the zero 24-hour volume and $39,931 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and trader conviction despite the lopsided odds. The massive 2091.8% implied yield on the No side indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty—a rational trader would demand extraordinary compensation for backing a 8% outcome, but the lack of volume suggests few are willing to test this price. With 201 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, this market has moderate event risk but appears to be a low-activity position trade rather than an actively discovered price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade