What is the current probability for "Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 14, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 411.8% and 6588.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Polymarket, closing May 14, 2026.

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80¢

Bid/Ask 79/80¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $4,051·OI $8,119.282·Closes May 14, 2026·22d remaining

0xe3234d40ce57ce50bd7655931efb5f437fe920e287a1e0f6a48ea45d00e13c15

7-day price116 snapshots · 15 regime

84¢80¢ current

Apr 876¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 411.8%

IY (No) 6588.2%

Adj IY 3253%

CRI 4

Overround 8.8%

LAS 0.01

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	411.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6588.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3253%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	8.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:26 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xe3234d40ce57ce50bd7655931efb5f437fe920e287a1e0f6a48ea45d00e13c15 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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