What is the current probability for "Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 25¢ (25% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 430.8% and 47.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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25¢

Bid/Ask 16/33¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $112·OI $454.929·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0xe4fcc10c0ee2b1c0f6fd9bb8acdf8f009d38cfbf5c614a60e94696fa9da6c209

7-day price1251 snapshots · 7 regime

65¢25¢ current

Apr 819¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 430.8%

IY (No) 47.9%

Adj IY 431%

CRI 3

RV 1143%

VR 6.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	430.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	47.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	431%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1143%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:34 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xe4fcc10c0ee2b1c0f6fd9bb8acdf8f009d38cfbf5c614a60e94696fa9da6c209 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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