Will Tempo launch a token by September 30 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Tempo launch a token by September 30 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market has collapsed 87% over seven days to just 3¢, suggesting either new negative information about Tempo's tokenomics plans or a sharp repricing of launch probability, yet the extreme 4557% implied yield on "Yes" and elevated realized volatility of 2508% indicate significant uncertainty persists.
Analysis
This market has collapsed 87% over seven days to just 3¢, suggesting either new negative information about Tempo's tokenomics plans or a sharp repricing of launch probability, yet the extreme 4557% implied yield on "Yes" and elevated realized volatility of 2508% indicate significant uncertainty persists. With zero 24-hour volume despite $2.16M open interest and a wide 1¢ spread, liquidity has evaporated alongside the price drop, making this a potentially illiquid trap for contrarian bettors. The 259-day runway to expiry and neutral regime score suggest the market may be waiting for concrete announcements, though the high cliff risk index of 32 warns of potential binary resolution events.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tempo (https://tempo.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tempo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe68a371989f1eae6480c35f3d98630a73dfd3b2ee6bf1f3e05313636aaa3c677 yes 100