Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price implying only 6% Republican odds in a state where Democrats hold a structural advantage, yet the astronomical 2859.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests minimal conviction behind the current price. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $37,960 open interest indicates this is a stale, illiquid position—likely a legacy bet from when the market was created—making the quoted price unreliable for actual trading. The 16 Cliff Risk Index flags significant tail risk, suggesting the market may experience sharp repricing closer to the 2026 election as liquidity returns and more sophisticated participants enter.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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