Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

The market has surged 48% over seven days to 62¢, reflecting recent diplomatic developments, though the 701% realized volatility and extreme 230% implied yield on the "No" side suggest significant uncertainty about Iran's commitment credibility. With $38.4K open interest but only $5.5K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for a binary with nearly 9 months to expiry, and the 2.1 info arrivals per hour indicate active news flow around nuclear negotiations. The 7.17 vol ratio and neutral regime score suggest the market is pricing in material tail risks around geopolitical escalation or negotiation breakdown, making the current 62¢ price potentially vulnerable to sharp reversals if talks stall.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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