Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $39,000 (HIGH) in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an 83¢ spread despite $32.5k open interest, suggesting the 44¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 44% implied probability for NDX hitting $39,000 appears artificially depressed given the realized volatility of 2929% and a 7-day price surge from 4¢ to 44¢, which signals recent conviction shift toward "Yes." With 256 days to expiration and only a 2.7% move required from current NDX levels (~$38,000), the 181.5% implied yield on "Yes" seems generous relative to the fundamental probability, though the extreme vol ratio of 11.32 and high information arrival rate warrant caution about potential adverse selection.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

Regime

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