Will the Republican Party win the CA-17 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.9M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and the 3¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 5900% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of deep out-of-the-money pricing that creates unrealistic return expectations, while the 4¢ spread indicates significant bid-ask friction. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests this contract may be experiencing forced liquidations or position unwinding rather than fundamental repricing of CA-17's Republican chances.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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